The Mets officially announced the signing of to a three-year deal that allows him to opt out after the second season. Its a reported $38MM guarantee for the Wa serman client. Holmes will collect $13MM salaries in each of the next two years before deciding whether to opt out of the final year and $12MM. The deal comes with an approximate $12.67MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes. The Mets intend to use Holmes as a starting pitcher. Holmes, who turns 32 on Opening Day, heads acro s town after three and a half seasons in the Bronx. He was an inconsistent pitcher for the Pirates between 2018-21. The Yankees, intrigued by his gaudy ground-ball rates, acquired him at the 21 trade deadline. That move wasnt met with a ton of fanfare, but Holmes broke out immediately after donning pinstripes. Owner of a 4.93 earned run average at the time of the trade, Holmes fired 28 innings of 1.61 ERA ball to kick off his Yankees career. He took over as Aaron Boones closer by the following season. Holmes saved 20 games with a 2.54 ERA acro s 63 2/3 innings to earn his first All-Star nod in 2022. He followed up with 63 frames of 2.86 ERA ball while picking up 24 saves. Holmes got out to another strong start this year. He didnt allow an earned run over 13 1/3 innings through the end of April. He had a productive May as well, though he started to struggle with his command. That was a sign of a somewhat rocky summer. Holmes posted a 3.64 ERA in 30 appearances between the start of June and the end of August. While his rate production wasnt terrible, he relinquished a lot of leads. By the start of September, the Yankees had replaced him in the ninth inning with . Holmes finished the season in a setup role. The 65 righty concluded the regular season with a 3.14 ERA acro s 67 innings. He struck out around a quarter of batters faced against a league average 8.1% walk rate. Holmes got grounders at a characteristically excellent 65% clip. Its far from a bad season, but he was bizarrely prone to blowing leads. While he recorded a career-high 30 saves, he was charged with an MLB-worst 13 blown saves. No other reliever gave up more than eight leads. He went into the postseason trending in the wrong direction after losing the closing job. To his credit, Holmes rebounded when the lights were brightest. He only gave up three runs in 12 postseason innings. While hed fallen behind Weaver in the bullpen hierarchy, he remained one of Boones most trusted setup options. Holmes picked up five holds without giving up the lead once in October. That finish was a more fitting ending to his strong run in the Bronx. While the fanbase was divided at times on his reliability, Holmes posted good to elite numbers throughout his Yankee tenure. Of the 86 relievers with at least 150 innings over the past three years, Holmes ranks 17th in ERA. While his 25.7% strikeout percentage is middle of the pack, his 68.6% ground-ball rate is #1 among that group. Theres no doubt that Holmes can be a productive reliever. Jordan Montgomery Jersey The Mets believe he can be more than that. Theyll give him a chance at a full-time rotation role for the first time in his MLB career. Holmes has started four major league games, all of which came during his 2018 rookie season in Pittsburgh. Those didnt go well he allowed a 7.80 ERA with more walks than strikeouts in 15 innings but thats of little consequence. The Mets arent placing any stock in a minuscule sample that predated his breakout by three years. Like many MLB relievers, Holmes was a starting pitcher in the minors. Hes not completely unfamiliar with working multiple innings, but itll be a tough test against big league hitters. Hell probably need to make an adjustment to his pitch mix. Holmes has e sentially abandoned his changeup since moving to the bullpen. His 96-97 MPH sinker is his go-to offering, the pitch most responsible for his huge grounder rates. Holmes has deployed two distinct breaking balls an 87 MPH slider and an 83-84 MPH offering that Statcast cla sifies as a sweeper. Having three pitches is an advantage as Holmes tries to navigate a lineup two or three times in an appearance. However, he hasnt used a changeup or splitter that most starters have to handle opposite-handed hitters. Holmes has fared well against hitters of either handedne s, but his strikeout and walk profile is far better when he holds the platoon advantage. As a Yankee, Holmes held right-handed batters to a pitiful .203/.267/.284 batting line. He struck them out at a huge 31.7% clip against a tidy 6.2% walk rate. He fanned only 19.8% of left-handed opponents while i suing walks at a 9.8% rate. Holmes still held lefties to a mediocre .235/.318/.307 slash, but thatll present more of a challenge as he works through a lineup multiple times. Theres significant upside if Holmes can make that transition. Reliever to rotation succe s stories have gotten increasingly common. , , and Holmes former teammate have become top-of-the-rotation starters after spending most of their careers in relief. , and look like mid-rotation arms. It hasnt been uniformly positive, though. wore down quickly when the Giants tried him as a starter last season. The Marlins experimented with in the rotation. They pulled the plug by the end of April after he had four terrible starts. Puk moved back to the bullpen with relative ease after the rotation experiment flopped. Thats a po sibility for Holmes as well. The Mets surely believe he could return to a setup role in front of if he doesnt take to the rotation. Theyd be paying a high but not outlandish price for a leverage reliever in that case. , and have signed three-year deals in the $33-35MM range in recent years. The Braves guaranteed Lpez $30MM to give him a shot as a starter. Hicks, who is younger than the rest of that group, signed a four-year deal worth $44MM. MLBTR predicted Holmes would land a three-year, $30MM contract that valued him as a setup arm. The Mets are going a little beyond that based on the perceived upside as a starter. The opt-out gives Holmes a chance to retest the market after two seasons. If he proves hes capable of starting, he could do quite well in that return trip. Theres precedent for starters getting lucrative three-year deals at age 34. Lugo signed for $45MM, while and each inked $63MM contracts. Holmes is the second rotation addition for the Mets in recent days. They finalized a two-year, $34MM deal with on Wednesday. Theyve taken upside fliers in the middle of the market thus far a strategy they employed to great succe s last offseason with and . There should be more rotation moves on the way. New York already lost Severino and could see Manaea and depart as free agents. and likely have rotation spots secured, but theres little certainty with a fifth spot thatd go to one of or at the moment. Senga barely pitched this year, while Holmes could be on an innings limit. The Mets are still potential suitors for a top-of-the-market arm like or , though president of baseball operations David Stearns has yet to make that kind of move. At the very least, theyll continue to identify upside targets in the middle of free agency. of the first reported the Mets and Holmes were in agreement on a three-year deal worth $38MM. reported the opt-out clause and confirmed the Mets would use Holmes as a starter, which Sherman earlier this week. reported the salary breakdown. Image courtesy of Imagn. Wilderd Patino Jersey
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